Topic / economics

Economic Growth

Output, productivity, investment and the conditions behind rising living standards.

Core exam brief

Know the idea before you use the evidence.

Definition

Economic growth is an increase in real output, usually measured by growth in real GDP.

Chain of analysis

Short-run growth can come from higher aggregate demand; long-run growth requires greater productive capacity through labour, capital or productivity.

Evaluation trigger

Consider per-capita growth, sustainability, inequality, environmental costs and whether growth is cyclical or structural.

Latest verified coverage

1 Oct 2026 · Japan

Monetary PolicyInflationEconomic Growth

Bank of Japan members see moderate growth but flag inflation upside risks

The Bank of Japan's 1 October 2026 Summary of Opinions says Japan's economy is expected to keep growing moderately, while policymakers continue to watch upside risks to inflation and the case for further policy adjustment.

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30 Sept 2026 · United States

Economic GrowthTrade

U.S. GDP growth revised up to 2.2% annualised in Q2 2026

U.S. real GDP grew at an annualised rate of 2.2% in the second quarter of 2026, 0.7 percentage points above the second estimate but below revised 2.5% growth in Q1.

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A modern industrial factory in Silicon Valley

30 Sept 2026 · United States

InflationEconomic Growth

U.S. consumer spending rose 0.9% in August as PCE inflation reached 3.4%

U.S. personal consumption expenditures rose 0.9% in August 2026 and real spending increased 0.6%, while the PCE price index was 3.4% higher than a year earlier.

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A shopper using mobile payment at a supermarket checkout

30 Sept 2026 · United Kingdom

Economic GrowthTrade

UK GDP growth revised up to 0.5% in Q2 2026

UK real GDP grew by 0.5% in Quarter 2 2026, revised up from the first estimate of 0.4%, after growth of 0.6% in Quarter 1.

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The London skyline seen from Waterloo Bridge

11 Sept 2026 · United Kingdom

Economic Growth

UK monthly real GDP grew by 0.4% in July 2026

UK monthly real GDP grew by 0.4% in July 2026, while output grew by 0.4% across the latest three-month period.

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7 Sept 2026 · Eurozone

Economic GrowthUnemployment

Euro-area GDP grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2026

Euro-area GDP grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2026, while EU GDP grew by 0.7% quarter on quarter.

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The Frankfurt skyline seen from the Städel rooftop

1 Sept 2026 · China

Economic GrowthBusiness Activity

Purchasing Managers’ Index for August 2026

China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8% in August 2026, leaving the index below the expansion threshold.

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26 Aug 2026 · United States

Economic GrowthInflation

U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualised in Q2 2026

U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualised rate in the second quarter of 2026, down from 2.1% in Q1, as faster consumer spending was offset by weaker government spending, investment and exports.

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The skyline of downtown Manhattan in New York City

26 Aug 2026 · United Kingdom

Economic GrowthInflation

UK to cut VAT on household electricity from 5% to 0% from October

VAT on household electricity will fall to 0% from 1 October 2026; the government estimates an average household saving of about £45 a year, a 2026-27 cost of around £850 million and a direct 0.10 percentage-point reduction in CPI inflation.

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Electronic electricity meters used to measure household power consumption

21 Aug 2026 · United Kingdom

Economic Growth

UK public borrowing was £1.8bn in July 2026

UK public sector net borrowing was £1.8 billion in July 2026, while public sector net debt stood at £2,984.9 billion, or 94.1% of GDP, at the end of the month.

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The HM Revenue and Customs building seen from Parliament Square in London

21 Aug 2026 · United Kingdom

Economic Growth

UK retail sales volumes fell 0.5% in July but rose over three months

Great Britain retail sales volumes fell 0.5% in July 2026, but were 1.1% higher in the three months to July than in the previous three months.

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19 Aug 2026 · China

Economic Growth

China's retail sales growth slowed to 0.6% in July

The weak monthly reading underlines the challenge of strengthening household demand in an economy long driven by investment and exports.

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18 Aug 2026 · United States

Monetary PolicyEconomic GrowthHousing

US housing starts fell sharply in July

New-home construction weakened, showing how interest rates and developer confidence can transmit monetary policy into the real economy.

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Construction workers fitting roof trusses to a new building

17 Aug 2026 · Japan

Economic GrowthInflationMonetary Policy

Bank of Japan forecasts 0.6% growth and 2.5% inflation for FY2026

The Bank of Japan expects real GDP to grow 0.6% and CPI inflation excluding fresh food to be 2.5% in fiscal 2026, while signalling further policy-rate rises as conditions evolve.

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17 Aug 2026 · United Arab Emirates

Economic Growth

UAE central bank reports resilient banks and strong 2025 growth

The annual stability review links robust output and low inflation to the strength of banks, credit and the wider financial system.

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Dubai and its coastline photographed from the International Space Station

14 Aug 2026 · United States

Economic Growth

US retail sales fell 0.6% in July

The monthly fall points to softer goods spending, though annual sales remained higher and the data cover only part of household consumption.

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A scene at the 2025 Great American Farmers Market in Washington, D.C.

14 Aug 2026 · Eurozone

Economic GrowthUnemployment

Euro-area GDP grew by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026

Euro-area GDP grew by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026, while EU GDP grew by 0.5% quarter on quarter.

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The Frankfurt skyline seen from the Städel Museum area

13 Aug 2026 · United Kingdom

Economic Growth

UK real GDP grew by 0.4% in Quarter 2 2026

UK real GDP grew by 0.4% in Quarter 2 2026, with output higher than in the same quarter a year earlier.

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The City of London skyline seen from the Queen's Walk

13 Aug 2026 · United Kingdom

Economic GrowthSupply-Side Policy

UK output per hour rose 0.7% year-on-year in Q2 2026 on the ONS preferred measure

ONS's preferred PAYE-RTI-based flash estimate showed UK output per hour 0.7% higher and output per worker 1.4% higher in Q2 2026 than a year earlier.

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Advanced additive-manufacturing equipment in a research facility

13 Aug 2026 · United Kingdom

TradeEconomic Growth

UK goods exports fell 6.3% in June as the Q2 trade deficit widened

UK goods exports fell 6.3% between May and June 2026 while goods imports fell 0.7%; the total goods-and-services trade deficit widened to £8.0 billion in Q2 2026.

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Stacked freight containers at a container port

Analysis and example bank

30 July 2026 · Eurozone

15-marker25-marker

Euro-area unemployment held at 6.3% in June 2026

Eurostat reported euro-area unemployment of 6.3% in June 2026 and EU unemployment of 6.0%. Around 11.13 million people were unemployed in the euro area, while youth unemployment was much higher at 14.8%. The release is useful because it combines a relatively low headline unemployment rate with clear evidence that labour-market outcomes differ sharply across groups.

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Jobseekers speaking to employers at a career fair

13 August 2026 · United Kingdom

15-marker25-marker

ONS reported that the UK's total goods-and-services trade deficit widened by £0.3bn to £8.0bn in Q2 2026

ONS reported that the UK's total goods-and-services trade deficit widened by £0.3bn to £8.0bn in Q2 2026. The headline hides a major contrast: a £60.7bn goods deficit was largely offset by a £52.7bn services surplus. This is a strong balance-of-payments example because it teaches students not to confuse the trade balance with the entire current account.

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Rows of terraced houses in Dorset, United Kingdom

11 June 2026 · Developing economies / Global

15-marker25-marker

World Bank forecasts developing-economy growth slowing to 3.6% in 2026

The World Bank's June 2026 Global Economic Prospects forecast developing-economy growth slowing from 4.4% in 2025 to 3.6% in 2026. More importantly for A-Level evaluation, the Bank said developing economies excluding China and India are approaching a decade with almost no progress in narrowing the per-capita income gap with advanced economies. This makes the release a strong growth-versus-development case.

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The stone facade of the Bank of England in London

11 August 2026 · Global

15-marker25-marker

EIA expects Brent oil to ease from about $85 as supply recovers

The EIA expected Brent crude to average about $85 a barrel in Q3 2026 before easing to around $69 in 2027 as inventories rebuild. This gives students a specific, current supply-shock example rather than a generic statement that oil prices are volatile.

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An offshore oil platform near Santa Barbara, California

13 August 2026 · United Kingdom

15-marker25-marker

UK output per hour rose 0.7% year on year in Q2 2026

ONS’s preferred RTI-based estimate showed UK output per hour 0.7% higher in Q2 2026 than a year earlier and output per worker 1.4% higher. The alternative LFS-based estimate was weaker, making measurement uncertainty a ready-made evaluation point.

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A team on a modern factory floor in Silicon Valley

21 August 2026 · United Kingdom

15-marker25-marker

UK public borrowing was £1.8bn in July 2026

UK public sector net borrowing was £1.8bn in July 2026 and net debt stood at £2,984.9bn, or 94.1% of GDP. The example is useful for separating the borrowing flow from the debt stock and evaluating fiscal policy rather than treating all borrowing as automatically harmful.

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The International Monetary Fund headquarters in Washington, D.C.

18 August 2026 · United Kingdom

15-marker25-marker

UK unemployment was 4.9% in April–June 2026

The UK unemployment rate was 4.9% in April–June 2026, with employment at 75.1% and economic inactivity at 20.9%. The release is useful because it connects labour-market conditions to household income, aggregate demand and inflation.

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Workers and machinery in a modern produce facility

26 August 2026 · United States

15-marker25-marker

U.S. GDP growth slows to 1.5% annualised in Q2 2026

U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualised rate in Q2 2026, down from 2.1% in Q1. Yet private domestic final sales grew 4.2%, making this a strong example of why students should look beyond the headline GDP number.

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30 July 2026 · United Kingdom

15-marker25-marker

Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75%

The Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75% in July 2026. Three MPC members preferred an increase to 4.0%, showing how policymakers were balancing persistent inflation risks against signs of weaker demand.

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19 August 2026 · United Kingdom

15-marker25-marker

UK CPI inflation rises to 2.9% in July 2026

UK CPI inflation rose to 2.9% in the 12 months to July 2026 from 2.6% in June, while CPIH rose to 3.1%. The release is useful for analysing real incomes, the Bank of England’s policy trade-off and the distinction between headline and underlying inflation.

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A shopper placing fresh produce into a supermarket trolley

Updated July 2026 · China / Global

25-markerTrade

China’s growth slows and weakens global demand

China’s real GDP grew 4.3% year on year in Q2 2026, down from 5.0% in Q1. First-half growth was 4.7%. The example shows how slower activity in a major economy can transmit to other countries through trade and aggregate demand.

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Construction workers on a residential building site