UK inflation holds at 2.8%
UK CPI inflation was 2.8% in May 2026, unchanged from April but lower than March. This example is useful because it can support two different arguments: lower inflation may improve real incomes and confidence, but it may also signal weaker demand depending on the cause.
Chain
Lower inflation → slower rise in living costs → possible improvement in real incomes → stronger consumer confidence → higher consumption → AD may rise
Evaluation
The impact depends on why inflation is lower. If inflation falls because supply conditions improve, growth may be supported. If it falls because demand is weak, growth may slow.
Diagram
AD/AS diagram showing reduced inflationary pressure