World Bank forecasts developing-economy growth slowing to 3.6% in 2026
The World Bank's June 2026 Global Economic Prospects forecast developing-economy growth slowing from 4.4% in 2025 to 3.6% in 2026. More importantly for A-Level evaluation, the Bank said developing economies excluding China and India are approaching a decade with almost no progress in narrowing the per-capita income gap with advanced economies. This makes the release a strong growth-versus-development case.
Chain
Slower developing-economy growth → weaker growth in output, jobs and tax revenues → slower gains in income per head and fiscal capacity → less scope to improve health, education, infrastructure and poverty outcomes → development progress may slow
Evaluation
Real GDP growth is neither necessary nor sufficient evidence of broad development. The outcome depends on population growth, income distribution, the sectors driving growth, institutions, public spending quality, debt constraints and exposure to commodity-price shocks. Regional differences are large, so a global developing-economy average should not be treated as every country's experience.
Diagram
PPF or LRAS diagram showing an increase in productive capacity, followed by evaluation of why higher real GDP does not automatically equal economic development